» Growth at Jamba Inc. (Nasdaq: JMBA) should juice up revenues and profits

Growth at Jamba Inc. (Nasdaq: JMBA) should juice up revenues and profits

June 13, 2007 on 8:12 am | In Short Term Picks |

BUY JMBA near $10.02

Jamba, Inc. operates a chain of smoothie shops focusing on fresh fruit smoothies with optional vitamin and protein supplements. Operating under the Jamba Juice brand name, Jamba has about 600 locations including full size stores and on-site kiosks. Jamba differentiates itself from other beverage and fast food outlets by focusing on fresh and healthy drinks and food products.

Jamba, Inc. has a market cap of about $530 million, cash of about $67 million and no significant long term debt.

On June 11^th Jamba announced earnings for the first quarter of 2007 of $11.9 million or 20 cents per share versus a year ago loss of $81.5 million or -$3.88 per share. Although these first quarter results included a pre-tax gain of $15.2 million, after backing out this gain the results still handily beat analyst expectations. Revenues increased 22% year over year coming in at $89.4 million.

Jamba opened 26 new stores in the first quarter of 2007. Although Jamba is already expanding at a brisk pace, the long term goal for Jamba is to open over 5,000 stores worldwide. Jamba says that this number can be reached without cannibalizing existing stores by expanding to new areas with residential density of 15,000+ within one mile, average household incomes over $50,000, and strong vehicular and pedestrian traffic counts. Fueled by these expansion plans and increasing same store sales, Jamba is forecasting revenues of at least $600 million a year by 2010.

We think that yesterday’s weak market conditions helped create a rather subdued movement in shares of Jamba after the company reported excellent results for the first quarter. At this point, shares of Jamba are only about 0.5% higher than they were before the first quarter results were announced even though Jamba beat top line expectations by 30% and it appears that Jamba’s growth is accelerating faster than expected.

Currently, 42% of Jamba’s revenues come from “light” users. These light users visit Jamba Juice stores 1 or 2 times a month. If Jamba can entice these light users to visit Jamba Juice 1 more time per month, total company revenues would rise by 10%.

In order to increase the frequency of customer visits, Jamba is implementing various new initiatives designed to compliment Jamba’s core competency of healthy, fun, and on-the-go product offerings. A healthy version of a stuffed pocket breakfast product will be offered at select locations starting this summer. A ready to drink bottled product is also in development and should be ready in the second half of 2007.

One of the Jamba Juice stores located in the Bahamas recently started selling salads and other pre-packaged healthy food options. Jamba has reported that sales at this location have been brisk and that the additional food offerings have helped increase customer retention rates and customer visit frequency. Jamba is currently evaluating options for including similar healthy food options in at many Jamba Juice locations.

On the marketing front, Jamba recently partnered with Nike to promote Jamba Juice at marathons and other sporting events. This cross promotion with Nike is typical of Jamba Juice marketing which tends to shun traditional media outlets in favor of grass roots campaigns and viral marketing opportunities.

Jamba hopes to become the world’s leading brand focusing on what the company calls “healthy energy”. The core of the healthy energy concept revolves around fresh fruit high in antioxidants, vitamins, minerals, natural sugars, and fiber. Consumers in the US are increasingly health conscious and although fast food chains have attempted to increase healthy food options, Jamba Juice is well positioned to become the market leader for healthy drinks, snacks, and light meals. Jamba does not have to reposition itself to appeal to the health conscious consumer, healthy drinks and food are part of the core concept of the Jamba Juice brand.

Recently companies like Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) and Buffalo Wild Wings (Nasdaq: BWLD) have seen their stock prices soar due to increasing revenues and profits largely fueled by aggressive expansion plans. Jamba Inc. could be poised to follow in the footsteps of these companies. Revenues jumped in the first quarter of 2007 and analysts expect Jamba to become profitable (without one time gains) in the seasonally strong second quarter.

At Wall Street Mayhem we think that the risk/reward ratio for shares of Jamba is excellent at this point. Jamba’s growth should continue to accelerate due to expansion and recent initiatives designed to drive customer frequency rates. Additionally, over 30% of Jamba shares are held short. As seen by the recent moves in Wall Street Mayhem picks Cree (Nasdaq: CREE) and Taser (Nasdaq: TASR), high short percentages can create quick surges in share price when companies receive positive news or increased investor attention.

Jamba is poised to report an excellent 2^nd quarter for 2007. Revenues exploded in the first quarter and traditionally the 2^nd quarter is much stronger for Jamba Juice due to favorable weather conditions. Now is a good time to buy shares of Jamba Juice before the second quarter results and before the short covering starts to accelerate.

The board of directors and the management at Jamba Juice have made quality strategic decisions and they have an exceptional pedigree. Although Jamba is a small company from a market cap perspective, management has extensive experience in food and beverage retail. CEO Paul Clayton is the former President of Burger King (NYSE: BKC) North America while Board member Craig Foley was the early lead investor in Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) and Costco (Nasdaq: COST) and was on the board of directors at Starbucks for 15 years. Other Jamba board members also serve on the boards of Ebay (Nasdaq: EBAY), Burger King (NYSE: BKC), and P.F. Chang’s (Nasdaq: PFCB).

Jamba Inc. is a growth story in its early stages. Although Jamba must increase customer frequency rates to become a highly profitable company, recent initiatives including pre-packed bottled beverages and healthy food products should open Jamba Juice to a wider range of customers while increasing visit frequency for current customers.

With a market cap of only $530 million, rapid growth, and a healthy brand image, Jamba has the makings of an appealing takeover target. If Starbucks wanted to extend their dominance of the beverage industry while improving their appeal to health conscious consumers, Jamba seems like an excellent fit.

Full disclosure: Wall Street Mayhem is long JMBA

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I think it’s down today because Cramer said to sell it yesterday during his lightning round. He said the entire sector was weak. He’s grouping it with Jones Soda and Hansons Natural… Totally different types of companies and products. Anyway, he has a big audience, many of which probably bought JMBA back when he was recommending it. Now they are dumping it. I think this is a great buying opportunity. You get all the benefit of the quarter’s great numbers without paying for it.

Comment by Prince Andrei Bolkonsky — June 13, 2007 #
I am shocked that JMBA is not higher than it was before their earnings announcement. If Cramer is part of the reason then that makes it a great buy right here.

Comment by Trader Joe — June 13, 2007 #
Cramer doesn’t know what he is talking about and there is no chance that he actually saw the Q1 earnings based on those comments. I don’t think Cramer is an idiot, but he just simply can’t know everything about every stock. That being said, if you have to put JMBA in a sector, CMG might be in the sector, but certianly not Jones Soda or Hansons natural.

Comment by Paul — June 13, 2007 #
Not a good start for JMBA since I bought yesterday at $9.90, but this could help things out, from thestreet.com:
“the Russell Corporation announced that JMBA was on its list of preliminary additions to be added to the Russell 3000 index on June 22. There should be buying from index funds between now then.”

Comment by Pligg — June 14, 2007 #
I agree that this stock is different from Jones Soda, but I think that Jones is a much better buy at these levels which are roughly 55% from its 52 week high.

Comment by Seth — June 14, 2007 #
Jones Soda? Come one Seth, Jones Soda may be way off the 52 week high, but it is still way overvalued. Declining revenues, a sky high P/E, I don’t see any reason why anyone would buy shares of JSDA. Jamba on the other hand just had a massive jump in revenues and they are just getting started on a big growth phase.

Comment by Trader Joe — June 15, 2007 #
I think one of Jamba’s difficulties is the low margin. In the most recent quarter I believe the cost of goods sold was roughly 81% of the total revenue. Hopefully these should improve w/ a better product mix- water, pretzels, etc. that can boost the margins. Mr. Clayton, if you’re reading this I would also recommend:

1) Using viral marketing to promote your product and get the buzz out. Have some contest for an independent video about Jamba juice. The winner gets a year supply of Jamba (2 smoothies a day) or something like that.

2) Tack on an extra nickel to the cost of the smoothie and improve your smoothie margin by 1% or so that way.

3) Have some type of food combo- pretzel + smoothie. Make it a family pack?

Comment by Collin Lee — June 16, 2007 #
(Full disclosure, I entered JMBA a few weeks ago around $9.75 and picked up a few hundred shares, having waited for entry for about 2 months… it is easier owning this stock as a loyal customer, than buying their product an not being “in the game.”
(A little history)The pre=public Jamba has been a very special evening treat for my brother and his pre-teen/now-teen son for several years… they live in an expensive area of the South Bay peninsula near SF. Occasionally we visit from Sacramento, and my son would tag along for a Jamba Juice treat. Eventually it happend,I ended up at the adjacent SBUX and the line was long… my son said, “Dad, you should try a Jamba Juice, they’re really good.” Out of respect for my son, I broke my SBUX routine and had him order for me, he said “I know just what to get Dad, you don’t need to think or read the menu.” I said, “Okay, Jack, but don’t get a big one, I don’t like wasting money, and I know for sure what SBUX items I like.”
Bottom line: I was treated to a Jamba Juice (extra thick) “Strawberry Wild,” and have never looked back.
For the last two years my father/son Friday night tradition is split about 80/20 JMBA to SBUX hot chocolate.
We’re now building small positions in JMBA to diversify the small position we have in SBUX… and I feel good about this.
I think JMBA is going to do well if managed in line with other successful growth companies (such as SBUX). They seem to put the warmest and friendliest young people as order takers… but you get the “feel good” SBUX thing going.
Areas to improve are to maintain very consitent quality control, and in my opinion the workers toward end-of-shift do tend to let their guard down, and idle chatter and a soupy (not stand-up thick)smoothy can be the result. Order takers want to know your name, a special “touchy feely” exercise that comes with a big smile and direct eye contact… pretty cool.
I must maintain some position in JMBA for my son… if this company stumbles it will not be due to its product; but more likely to poor quality on a mobile extension, strong competition or poor management and execution. I like the above information that JMBA has identified its core demographic to establish and grow their footprint.
I do not know if Cramer has actually tried a Jamba smoothie… but i have, and this product is a winner, with the SBUX “feel good” thing going… and better yet, you see retired grandparents, college, high school and pre-teen mix of clientele… that works for me for a long-term ride; we’ll just have to see how this plays out.
Nesteggs
I like

Comment by Nesteggs — June 17, 2007 #
Just a few things I have found from research:

1) The smoothies are aimed to be a meal replacement unlike jones soda.

2) The company is young, its margin of profit will increase over time as it increases buying power, implements new systems, and creates more efficient stores.

3) Jamba customers are similar to Starbucks customers… if they get upset with a store they don’t switch brands they just drive a few extra miles to another Jamba.

4) Young kids, teens, and celebs love Jamba. In key areas like Bev Hills, Studio City, models health freaks, and professionals are heavy users.

5) The companies new marketing director is making a huge impact on the company which will become more finanicially evident over the next few quarters.

Comment by excio — June 18, 2007 #
JMBA had its analyst day last week and disclosed these economics for new stores.

Unit Level Economics for stores open 2 years

$771k average sales = 19.6% store margins,

Comment by Eric — June 19, 2007 #
They also said that this was the year of the infrastructure build out to support growth so maybe this is impacting margins. Also, going into new emerging markets causes low initial average unit volumes which will also cause lower overall margins.

AUV in emerging markets

2001 - $ 431k auv
2003 - $ 510 auv
2005 - $ 601 auv
2006 - $669 auv

Comment by Eric — June 19, 2007 #
Funny Trader Joe that the trading day after you said never jones soda it was up 10%. People have got to dig a little deeper on why this stock is a buy. The last quarter had no Walmart, Kroger, or Safeway influence. Their Corn syrup product was selling at half price at Target because they didn’t want to screw the retailers with something that was going to be updated in weeks. They payed for all the concentrate being shipped out to National Beverage corp. but didn’t reap profits because the product wasn’t even on shelves yet. This next quarter will be a blowout with analysts cutting estimates when it was semi bullish Jones broke even when paying to supply all those retailers and not getting any profit. Its like asking a farmer how successful he was on one given day and that day being the one where he purchased tons of seeds and hadn’t reeped the revenue from the end product. Here is a page that proves the barrons article wrong which is the reason we had such a correction.
http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingal......html?.v=2

Best of Luck

Comment by Seth — June 24, 2007 #
Edit: The next quarter will be a blowout because analysts cut estimates.
Sorry

Comment by Seth — June 24, 2007 #
This hasn’t worked out too well. Win some and lose some. JSDA just bottomed and their new Aged Cola debuts this Saturday.

Comment by Seth — July 3, 2007 #
Seth, you’re right that JMBA hasn’t worked out too well, yet. That being JSDA has still gone down even more than JMBA since this pick came out. JMBA has massive growth potential while JSDA is just another fad suger water company.

Comment by Trader Joe — July 3, 2007 #
16.41 up 12.61% today.

Comment by Seth — July 5, 2007 #
up another 4% go go go JSDA!!!!

Comment by Seth — July 6, 2007 #
Nice call Seth, alhtough I tend to agree with some of the other posters that JMBA is a better long term play than JSDA, I can’t argue with your timing or the short term return.

Comment by Mark — July 7, 2007 #
Thanks man,
Looking back at the posts I hope I didn’t act like an SA. Truth is I’m a bagholder from the low 20’s and this pop is just what I needed though overdue. We do a lot more work than other people making money so I was just trying to help. Just to keep it on your calender Jones reports AUG. 2ND after the bell. I’m all in on this one as I have really researched this and everybody who is in now has stated they aren’t selling til $50. With the seahawks deal, new cola, and SELLOUTS and quick reshippments at my two walmart stores I am so BULLISH on this stock.
Anyway best of luck,
Seth

Comment by Seth — July 9, 2007 #
I would love to buy JMBA and get hyped on the potential. The one problem I have is while I lived in NYC for 2 years, I never encountered more than 3-4 people in any Jamba outlet (excluding Union Square). Same holds true for Atlanta, near where I live now. Maybe things in Cali are different, but I am not ready to preach the gospel until I see the growth with my own eyes.

Good Luck.

Comment by Damien — July 12, 2007 #
I worked at jambe in high school and they have an amazing company culture-they are ranked THIRD in brand awareness behine starbucks and subway. I see a future starbucks rank of this company-people want to be healthy and fulfilled and happy and that is what jamba sells….

Comment by katgrape — July 12, 2007 #
I also live in NYC, and visit Jamba 3-4 times a week (Acai Supercharger!!), and only once or twice in the last few months have I seen a Jamba store with less than 3 or 4 people waiting (and at times much more). The long lines are one reason why I picked up 1,000 shares…

Comment by Richard Kim — July 18, 2007 #
Any update on this? This missed call is starting to sting…

Comment by J Trader — August 14, 2007 #
JMBA is down 80% now.

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